Zambians stood outside polling stations long before sunrise. They bundled in thick jackets against the winter chill. They huddled near small fires. Today, around 8 million registered voters are deciding whether President Hakainde Hichilema deserves a second term.
This election is a blunt referendum on economic survival. Back in 2021, Hichilema rode a landslide victory into office after the country hit a brutal sovereign debt default. He promised a "new dawn". He promised financial stabilization. He promised that a businessman's touch could fix a broken Treasury.
Now, the ballot box demands proof.
The Reality Behind The Macroeconomic Recovery
On paper, the numbers look impressive. Inflation slowed down to around 6.5%. The government successfully pulled off a massive international debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework. Foreign investors are back, eyeing the country's massive copper reserves. Hichilema wants to triple annual copper production to 3 million metric tons by 2031.
International financial institutions love these metrics. But macroeconomics don't buy groceries.
Ask an ordinary person in Lusaka or Kitwe about GDP growth, and you will likely get a bitter laugh. Daily life remains punishingly expensive. Years of subsidy removals on fuel and electricity—demanded by the International Monetary Fund bailout—left deep scars on household budgets.
People feel squeezed. They acknowledge that the treasury avoided total collapse, but they wonder why the relief hasn't trickled down to their pockets.
The Opposition And A Fractured Challenger Camp
Hichilema faces 13 challengers, but his main threat comes from Brian Mundubile. Mundubile leads the Tonse Alliance, a coalition backed by loyalists of the late former president Edgar Lungu.
Mundubile has hammered the ruling party on the cost of living. He argues that the administration spends too much time praising international creditors while local families skip meals. It is a potent populist message.
Yet, the opposition suffers from chronic self-sabotage. Splintered leadership and internal rivalries weaken their punch. In several constituencies, opposition candidates from allied parties are actively running against each other. When you fight your own allies, the incumbent wins by default. Analysts widely expect Hichilema to hold his ground precisely because his rivals cannot present a united front.
Democratic Health And Growing Political Tensions
Zambia has a proud tradition of peaceful democratic transitions. It stands as a rare beacon of stability in a volatile region. Voters have changed governments through the ballot box three times since 1991.
Even so, tensions flared ahead of this vote. Police presence surged across major cities. Authorities warned against fake news and polling disruptions. Civil society groups raised alarms over a stringent cybercrimes law passed last year, arguing it mutes digital dissent.
Opposition figures claim state machinery targets them unfairly. They point to police raids on alliance offices as proof of executive overreach. The government rejects these accusations entirely, pointing back to its removal of archaic defamation laws early in its term as evidence of its commitment to free speech.
What Happens Next For Copper And Jobs
If Hichilema secures his second term, his mandate comes with heavy fine print. Investors want to see if he can turn financial recovery into actual job creation. The youth unemployment rate remains a ticking clock.
Zambia sits on the raw materials powering the global green transition. Electric vehicles and renewable power grids rely heavily on copper. The country holds immense wealth beneath its soil, but wealth extraction must translate into schools, hospitals, and stable employment.
The queues outside polling booths will shorten. The ballot boxes will close. By Monday, the electoral commission expects to release results. Whatever the outcome, the winner inherits an impatient population demanding immediate results.
