If you thought the 2022 Pretoria Agreement permanently quieted the guns in northern Ethiopia, you haven't been paying attention to the ground reality. The map of friends and enemies in the region is flipping upside down. Old foes are quietly trading notes, and former comrades are pointing rifles at each other.
Let's look past the official diplomatic handshakes. Northern Ethiopia's shifting alliances are creating a volatile landscape where yesterday's mortal enemy might just be tomorrow's tactical partner. If you want to understand why clashes near Sheraro and western Tigray keep happening, you have to look at how power is being carved up right now.
The Strange Reversal Between Addis Ababa and Asmara
For outsiders, keeping track of who hates whom in the Horn of Africa feels like tracking a soap opera. During the brutal war between 2020 and 2022, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government fought shoulder-to-shoulder with Eritrean forces and Amhara Fano militias against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
Fast forward to today, and that entire architecture has collapsed.
Addis Ababa has officially acknowledged past abuses committed by Eritrean troops during the peak of the conflict, while Asmara accuses the Ethiopian federal government of casting around for hostile campaigns and eyeing access to the strategic Red Sea port of Assab. More explosive are the accusations coming out of Ethiopia's foreign ministry. Addis Ababa formally told the United Nations that a hardline faction within the TPLF and the Eritrean government have been actively financing and mobilizing Fano forces to destabilize parts of the Amhara region.
Think about that for a second. The very actors who spent years trying to crush the TPLF are now accused of cozying up to them to put pressure on Prime Minister Abiy's administration.
Inside the TPLF Internal Fracture and Political Defiance
The TPLF isn't acting as a monolith either. Internal friction has ripped through the party since the Pretoria peace deal. On one side, an interim administration tried to steer a moderate, transitional path. On the other side, hardline elements have pushed hard to reclaim pre-war administrative structures unilaterally, effectively sidelining the Pretoria framework.
When the TPLF leadership moves to reinstate its old governance layout without federal sign-off, it treats the peace deal as a dead letter. Federal authorities view this as an existential challenge. Skirmishes and renewed mobilization have followed closely behind these political fractures. When an incursion point flared up near the border with Sudan, it wasn't just a random border flare-up; it was a symptom of a much larger proxy contest.
The Regional Spillover Into Sudan and Egypt
You cannot understand northern Ethiopia in a vacuum. The local chess board connects directly to broader regional rivalries spanning the Nile River and the Red Sea.
Prime Minister Abiy's government maintains close ties with regional actors backing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's brutal civil war. Meanwhile, Eritrea has thrown its weight behind the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and built stronger coordination with Egypt. Cairo has its own long-running disputes with Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
This means northern Ethiopia's shifting alliances are deeply tied to a wider regional cold war. When weapons or logistical support flow into northern insurgencies, they often travel across these porous international borders with the silent blessing of regional capitals looking to weaken Addis Ababa.
What Happens When Peace Deals Unravel
Treaties on paper mean very little when the underlying political grievances go unaddressed. The federal government has struggled with uneven implementation of the peace accords, while regional militias like Fano refuse to disarm because they genuinely believe the state cannot protect Amhara communities.
If you are tracking security in East Africa, stop waiting for a single grand resolution. Instead, watch the back-channel communications between Asmara and Mekelle, monitor the command structures of irregular militias, and keep an eye on how the Sudanese conflict bleeds across the border. The current instability isn't an accidental deviation from peace. It is the new normal of a region re-negotiating its borders through blood and backroom deals.
