History rarely repeats itself neatly, but in South Dakota politics, it sometimes forces an entirely brand-new playbook. Governor Larry Rhoden just crushed a high-spending primary challenge from Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden, securing roughly 72% of the vote in the state's very first-ever gubernatorial primary runoff.
If you followed the initial June 2 primary, this outcome looks like a massive reversal. Doeden actually led the first round with about 31% of the vote, while Rhoden trailed behind at 25% in a crowded four-way race that knocked out high-profile figures like U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson and state House Speaker Jon Hansen. Because no candidate cleared the 35% threshold mandated by a 1985 state law, South Dakota was pushed into uncharted electoral territory.
Most pundits assumed the outsider momentum would carry Doeden across the finish line. Instead, pragmatic conservatism won the day.
The Anatomy of an Incumbent Comeback
How did Rhoden turn a six-point deficit into a landslide victory in a matter of weeks? Experience matters.
Rhoden stepped into the governor's office in January 2025 after former Governor Kristi Noem resigned to join the federal administration as Secretary of Homeland Security. Having served as lieutenant governor since 2019 and spent decades working his way through the state legislature as a rancher from Union Center, Rhoden didn't need to introduce himself to voters.
When the dust settled from the June primary, the arithmetic shifted dramatically. Voters who had backed eliminated candidates like Dusty Johnson and Jon Hansen didn't migrate toward Doeden's anti-establishment banner. Instead, they coalesced around Rhoden. Lawmakers and local precinct leaders pointed out a simple truth: South Dakota didn't feel broken to the average conservative voter.
Lt. Governor Tony Venhuizen summed up that sentiment bluntly during the campaign, noting that everyday residents looked at the state's economic trajectory and concluded it was already on the right track.
Millions Can't Buy Every Election
Money talks in modern politics, but it has limits at the local level. Doeden poured more than $4 million of his own fortune into the race, supplemented by outside conservative super PAC spending. He hammered away at property taxes, criticized government spending, and attacked the political establishment as corrupt.
Yet, the high-octane populist pitch hit a wall. Voters like 87-year-old Rapid City retiree Bob Trupe weighed the choices carefully, telling local reporters that governance requires an ability to collaborate rather than just shouting slogans. Rhoden's low-key, rancher-next-door persona resonated more with traditional Republicans than a self-funded corporate challenger promising a complete teardown of state systems.
Furthermore, Doeden's campaign strategy included aggressive salvos against institutional projects, such as a proposed replacement for the state's aging penitentiary—which Doeden derided as a luxury facility. While that criticism drew headlines, it failed to broaden his coalition beyond his core base of anti-establishment supporters.
What This Means for November
With the bruising Republican civil war behind him, Rhoden turns his attention toward the general election. He faces former state lawmaker Dan Ahlers, the Democratic nominee. Given that South Dakota hasn't elected a Democratic governor since the mid-1970s, the primary runoff was widely viewed as the real battle for the executive mansion.
Rhoden's victory speech in Sioux Falls struck notes of unity and faith, thanking supporters who flooded his phone lines with prayers during the grueling summer slog. Doeden handled the loss gracefully, calling the incumbent to concede and offering assistance for the general election cycle.
The first runoff in South Dakota history proved that while voters love an outsider narrative, they ultimately reward institutional stability when push comes to shove. Larry Rhoden survived the ultimate political stress test. Now he has to finish the job in November.
